The U.S. Senate on Saturday morning voted 51-49 to pass a massive tax overhaul that Republicans say will spur economic growth, increase wages, create jobs and give the middle class tax relief as …
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The U.S. Senate on Saturday morning voted 51-49 to pass a massive tax overhaul that Republicans say will spur economic growth, increase wages, create jobs and give the middle class tax relief as promised.
But will it?
That depends on who you ask. With any bill of this size and scope, there are clear winners and losers. But whether it will put America back on the track of “winning” as President Trump assures us is subject to interpretation.
Details of the 479-page bill are still emerging.
The full intent and impact of some of the provisions won’t be apparent for some time. The bill must still be reconciled with the House version.
Not surprisingly, Democrats are calling it a sham, a deficit-buster and a handout for corporations and the rich.
The bill will add $1.5 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. Republicans contend the tax cuts will pay for themselves over 10 years by unleashing the economy. That dramatic growth, the argument goes, will more than offset the cost of the bill.
But will it? Economists aren’t as certain as proponents of the bill. The Joint Committee of Taxation, the official scorekeepers of Congressional tax plans, concluded that even after factoring in economic growth, the plan will increase the deficit by over $1 trillion over the next decade.
The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center put the increase to the deficit at $1.3 trillion after accounting for economic growth. GOP leaders reject those conclusions.
So who are we supposed to believe? Polls show the majority of Americans are skeptical, with more people opposing the plan than supporting it.
Fewer than 1 in 6 Americans expect their taxes will actually be reduced on the belief that any gains that might be realized from a cut would probably be offset by changes to other deductions.
The majority of Americans, polls show, don’t buy the argument that cuts for corporations, which account for half of the overall tax cuts in the plan, will trickle down to them. They don’t believe companies are going to reinvest but rather will pocket the savings or turn it over to shareholders.
Major tax cuts should be popular. This one isn’t. And therein lies the risk for Republicans with this particular tax overhaul.
As more details of the plan are revealed, including the loopholes and the tax breaks for special interests, even more people are going to dislike this bill. Democrats are going to hammer the fact that overall, the richest 20 percent of households will reap 90 percent of the benefits of the GOP proposals.
Showering millionaires and billionaires with tax cuts has never been popular with working-class Americans. If, as some have suggested, a significant portion of the middle class actually see their taxes increase as a result of this bill, Republicans will be in real trouble.