I have a friend in Las Vegas with an interesting way of picking winners.

He doesn’t look at stats, weather or what a quarterback had for breakfast.

He eavesdrops on customers at the nearest sportsbook and figures out who the public’s darling is that day, and then bets in the other direction.

It’s simple.

Probably too simple.

But Las Vegas didn’t become Las Vegas by losing money to tourists on a regular basis, which means the Carolina Panthers are in trouble Sunday in Super Bowl 50.

With the NFL’s best record, best offense and fresh off a 49-15 beatdown of the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship, the Panthers were always going to be the public’s darling in this year’s Big Game.

Add in the fact the quarterback matchup is soon-to-be MVP Cam Newton against Peyton Manning — who hasn’t thrown a spiral in two years and is playing the worst football of his career — and it was easy to see the general public falling in love with the Panthers.

Vegas sportsbooks have reported anywhere from 75 to 90 percent of wagers on the Panthers to not only win the game, but cover the spread, which has ranged from four to six points the last week.

It’s the kiss of death, which the Broncos are all too familiar with.

Two seasons ago, Denver was given the kiss of death leading up to the Super Bowl against the Seahawks.

The Broncos received around 70 percent of public wagers after leading the NFL in nearly every offensive category in the regular season.

The Seahawks, with their middling offense and No. 1 ranked defense, embarrassed the Broncos by 35 points.

Don’t expect a repeat performance Sunday night, but don’t forget that when Vegas needs a certain outcome, it usually gets that outcome.

And Vegas needs the Broncos.

I could mention the Panthers’ offense faced one top-10 defense in the final 11 weeks of the regular season and isn’t prepared for a Denver defense that ranks first in the league. 

I could tell you Carolina’s first playoff win came against a Seahawks team that was playing its third road game in a row and had traveled nearly 9,000 miles in that span.

I could remind you the NFC title game win over the Cardinals was fueled by a fluky seven turnovers by Arizona, skewing public perception of Carolina’s performance.

I could argue the Broncos trio of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Derek Wolfe are the best defenders the Panthers have seen all season, and those three players have the athleticism and skill to contain Newton.

I could argue all of those things.

But I don’t need to.

The boys in the desert need Denver, and that’s all I need to know.