Major League Baseball’s new Wild Card format has made the second half of the season more exciting as more teams know they have a legitimate shot at the postseason. But it hasn’t made life easier …
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Major League Baseball’s new Wild Card format has made the second half of the season more exciting as more teams know they have a legitimate shot at the postseason.
But it hasn’t made life easier for general managers in July, who must decide how to handle the July 31 trade deadline.
Ten years ago, most teams knew by this time of the season if they had a good shot at the postseason, which guaranteed them a five-game series and as good of a shot as any at winning the World Series (five Wild Card teams have won the World Series since the rule was put in place in 1994).
Now, however, with Wild Card teams getting nothing more than a one-game playoff, things are tricky.
In the National League, six teams (Los Angele Dodgers, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies) are within six games of a Wild Card spot, with the top two teams meeting in the one-game playoff.
It’s clear than none of the six teams will be “sellers” at the trade deadline, unlike many bottom-feeders who will unload star players in attempts to stock up on more talent for the future.
But with nothing but a one-game playoff guaranteed to them if they get in, it’s hard to be “buyers,” either.
The Chicago Cubs, who sat seven games over the Cardinals in the National League Central Tuesday, made the biggest move of the trade season when they dealt for Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, perhaps the best closer in the Major Leagues.
Teams with World Series aspirations and a healthy farm system can — and should — make those deals, and the Cubs solidified themselves as title favorites.
But baseball is a fluky sport and weird things can happen in a single game.
The Cubs, after all, lost two of three games to the Cincinnati Reds (39-60) earlier this month.
The Major League playoffs have always been a crap shoot, and the one-game Wild Card playoff now makes teams win a coin flip before rolling an eight-sided die.
How do you decide how to set up your roster with those kind of odds?
If you’re the Cardinals and General Manager John Mozeliak, you probably stay put.
The Cardinals know first-hand about the flukiness of the playoffs after the 2006 team won the World Series after winning 83 games.
And with a finite amount of Major League talent in their minor league system, the club isn’t in a spot to mortgage the future for a coin flip.
The closest thing I would expect to see is a small-time deal for a reliever, someone who could help bolster the bullpen as former closer Trevor Rosenthal recovers from the yips.
The Cardinals could have put themselves in a position to be more aggressive.
But as has been the case most of thie year, they shot themselves in the foot in July
While the Cubs proved to be human in July, losing 12 of 20 games heading into Tuesday, the Cardinals could only pick up four games in the standings.
A 15-5 type of run (tough to ask for, but possible) would have got the Cardinals within four games of the Cubs.
Instead, they sit 6.5 games back with little hope to catch their rivals, especially after the addition of Chapman.
So, we wait.
But don’t expect fireworks.
Photo courtesy alchetron.com.