Work is still continuing on the new Warren County Master Plan with a proposed draft scheduled for the fall.

In June, the Warren County Master Plan Advisory Committee met with members of i5Group, the company tasked with drafting the proposed master plan and received updates on the progress of the plan.

Last week i5Group Project Manager Stephen Ibendahl was contacted regarding the newest updates. Ibendahl said the i5Group had created a video with the most recent updates on the project as of mid-June.

The discussion was primarily about the county’s growth projections over the next approximately 25 years, accounting not only for population growth, but housing and job growth as well. It also analyzed the capacity of cities within the county and the county as a whole to absorb that growth.

Ibendahl said that while no one can predict growth, it is possible to make projections based upon certain logical assumptions.

The growth projections were presented by i5Group Demographic and Market Analyst Bob Lewis. Lewis said that for the county’s projections, i5Group used three different models. One was called the “stay the course” model, which projected growth consistent with the county’s historical growth percentages. Another model is known as the speedier growth model and focuses more on the county’s recent surge in growth the last 10 years. The final model is a slower growth model, patterned after more national trends in population growth.

As of 2026, Warren County’s population is estimated to be 39,505. Under the stay the course model, i5Group is projecting growth of around 15,000 additional people by 2050 for a population of around 54,000. Under the speedier growth model the projection is for 23,780 more people, pushing the county’s population close to 63,000 by 2050. The slower growth model predicts growth of around only 4,580 people for just over 43,000.

This growth of course would necessitate a growth in housing for Warren County. Lewis said that nationwide the number of people per each individual household is shrinking, but in Warren County, specifically Wright City and Marthasville, that number seems to be increasing with the influx of more families with children into the area.

Lewis noted that additional housing needs would be determined in some respects by whether Warren County continues its trend of having a higher number of people per household than the nationwide average or whether it moves closer to the mean. For instance under the speedier growth model, if the county maintains its current course it would be expected that 8,900 more housing units would be needed to support the population growth, whereas if the county moved closer to the national average it might need as many as 10,000 more housing units.

On job growth figures, Lewis noted that between 2002 to 2025 the county saw a 37.6 percent growth in jobs, although he noted that trend skewed higher in the last 10 years with the significant increase in population. Under the speedier growth model Lewis said it is anticipated that the county will have 11,300 additional jobs by 2050, with 8,594 predicted under the stay the course model and 5,164 predicted under the slower growth model.

Lewis also spoke about a more nationwide trend towards lower birth rates, which could result in significant increases in older residents and a corresponding decrease in younger population metrics by 2050

The discussion then turned to whether the cities and county had the requisite infrastructure and other items necessary to support the projected growth in population and jobs. According to Ibendahl there was a pretty broad range in the cities for growth capacity, with a range of between 12,00 and 22,000 capacity. With respect to jobs the county could safely absorb another 9,000 to 18,000 jobs.

Ibendahl said there will be another advisory committee meeting sometime in late August or September and that would be followed up with stakeholder meetings to allow local entities and the public more input on the proposed master plan.

In the fall would be the second open house on the project as well as the release of the draft comprehensive plan for public comment.