Southern Warren County is likely to get hit with noticeable flooding again this year.

Many residents in the Missouri River valley had already guessed this could be another year of flooded fields and closed roads. Long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service are now backing that up.

Between now and the end of May, the weather service predicts a 60 percent chance of at least moderate flooding at Hermann. The forecast is a little brighter downriver at Washington, where there’s only 18 percent chance of moderate flooding.

All areas of the river through Warren County are almost guaranteed to see minor flooding, with the Missouri River forecast at over 20 feet through the spring. 

Hydrologist Mark Fuchs with the National Weather Service said forecasts for river flooding are made by combining information about current conditions, like soil moisture and snow pack upriver, with 60-plus years of weather data.

If the Missouri River gets a normal amount of rain, Fuchs said the chance of flooding is notably higher than the historical average.

“We’re hoping we have a fairly dry spring,” he commented, adding that this year’s lack of snow upriver is beneficial.

Warren County Emergency Management Director Mike Daniels said local forecasts show river levels aren’t likely to be as bad as they were in 2019, when continuous high water had areas of the river bottoms flooded for months.

“Right now, the levee districts are in a constant monitoring mode,” Daniels said. “If they see they’re going to start having an issue where the levee could be overtopped ... we can then start taking the necessary steps to either build up the levee or put out information to the citizens.”

Daniels said the farmers who live along the river are familiar with flooding and know when to start moving grain and equipment to higher ground. 

Similarly, he said local officials know what to expect from river flooding, especially which roads are likely to be impacted and might need to close.

“We’ve gone through this quite a few times over the last 5-6 years. We’ve got plans in place that we’ve developed in previous years that we just have to take off the shelf,” Daniels said.

He explained that the approach of local agencies will be to prepare for likely flooding without overreacting. Daniels expects any issues will be manageable with local agencies coordinating their response.

When flooding happens, local firefighters switch to rescue operations. Marthasville Fire Chief Jeff Backhaus said his district has fundraised to pay for swift water rescue equipment and training for its firefighters in recent years.

He said an important aspect of flood response is to be prepared in advance.

“The fire department has about two seconds to react to something once it happens. If we’re not in the planning stage before that and prepared for it, it makes our job a lot harder,” Backhaus commented.

River flooding tends to be less dangerous because of its slow pace, Backhaus said. The greater threat to safety comes from localized creek floods after a heavy rain.

Wherever a flood is happening, Backhaus said drivers should never drive over a flooded roadway. He said rescue calls for stranded drivers are one of the more frequent flood concerns.